“Automobiles and telephones, followed by televisions and personal computers, have undeniably changed the world and have greatly shaped the way in which we live our lives,” said Chris Pearson, President of 3G Americas. “Wireless mobile telephony substantially exceeds the impact of any one of these major innovations. In some countries, wireless penetration levels are exceeding 100 percent, as now, not only people, but machines, are connected through GSM technology, available today on nearly 800 networks in 219 countries worldwide.”

Equally noteworthy is the increasing number of 3G subscribers for UMTS-HSPA which has captured an annual worldwide gain of 57 percent in the year ending June 2009, according to Informa Telecoms & Media’s World Cellular Information Service. With 377 million subscriptions worldwide at the end of second quarter 2009, UMTS-HSPA added more than 137 million new connections in 12 months.

Today, there are 49 UMTS-HSPA networks commercially deployed throughout 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Worldwide, 277 commercial networks offer HSPA in 116 countries. Additionally, 11 networks have been upgraded to HSPA+. According to Informa, by the year 2012, UMTS-HSPA will reach a milestone of one billion subscribers.

For the full year, IDC believes that the market will decline 13%, with the market outlook for 2009 remaining relatively consistent among the top vendors. The small signs of improvement were centered around consumer demand for high-end handsets and the manufacturers’ ability to shift portfolio to meet these needs.

“Among the big handset vendors, Nokia, Samsung, Research In Motion, and Apple, all beat expectations for smartphones within the second quarter,” said Ryan Reith, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “This demand for high-end mobile phones has created a price war among large mobile operators and handset vendors. Apple’s price cut on the iPhone 3G reflects a trend we expect to continue in the upcoming quarters, and one that will effectively maintain competitive pricing within mature markets.”

The report found that the combined revenues from these services are expected to increase from $2.5bn in 2009 to nearly $5.5bn in 2013, driven by a array of factors including a greater variety of applications and content, all-inclusive data packages, consumer friendly UIs and an increase in handset storage capacity.

According to mobile music report author Dr Windsor Holden, “While some of the more traditional music services – most notably polyphonic ringtones and realtones – are in decline across many markets, we’re now seeing a surge in the adoption of more sophisticated offerings. Recent positive developments, such as Apple announcing that iPhone customers can use the 3G network to download full-tracks, will offer a further stimulus to growth.”

However, the Juniper report found that those music services launched using an ad-funded model face a potential shortfall in revenue followinga global reduction in advertising budgets: under the worst case scenario, it warned that adspend could reach just 50% of pre-downturn estimates.

Other findings from the report include:

• Ringback tone revenues will exceed those of ringtones by 2010 as service adoption increases outside Asia
• The Far East & China region will account for the largest share of mobile music revenues throughout the 2009-2013 forecast period, followed by Western Europe
• Aggregators must expand the depth and breadth of their portfolios beyond ringtones if they are to remain competitive

Respondents were asked whether they’d be more likely to purchase mobile services or mobile handsets from an operator that makes use of ‘green’ initiatives, which were described as:

“…gives money to organization seeking to help the environment, actively employs programs that reduce its carbon footprint, buys network equipment from ‘green’ equipment vendors.”

Paying more than just lip service, 41% (for services) and 45% (for devices) of the 1,000+ respondents indicated that they’d be significantly or somewhat more likely to do so. Younger consumers showed a greater willingness to pursue “eco-groovy” mobile activities than older ones.

“Wireless operators take notice,” says senior analyst Jeff Orr. “Green issues were not even a talking point a couple years back. Now, subscribers of all age groups are expressing awareness of and interest in eco-friendly device and service incentives.”

The service providers first to connect with environmentally conscious businesses and consumer subscribers will have an edge in this growing trend. Additional education remains necessary to communicate issues surrounding battery disposal and the accumulation of e-waste.

“There were some signs of a recovery in markets such as North America and China, but overall sales in the first quarter of 2009 registered the biggest quarter-on-quarter contraction since Gartner began monitoring the market on a quarterly basis in 2001,” said Carolina Milanesi, research director for mobile devices at Gartner, based in Egham, UK. “This was also the first time the market contracted year over year during the first quarter, a period traditionally helped by strong seasonality in the Asia/Pacific market.”

Nokia continued to lead the mobile phone market, but its share dropped to 36.2 per cent from 39.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2008. Samsung retained second place and improved its market share as its sales totalled 51.4 million units. After dropping to the fifth position in the fourth quarter of 2008, Motorola overtook Sony Ericsson to regain fourth place.

Smartphone sales represented 13.5 per cent of all mobile device sales in the first quarter of 2009, compared with 11 per cent in the first quarter of 2008. Gartner analysts said positive performance by Research In Motion (RIM) and Apple showed that services and applications are now instrumental to smartphones’ success.

Symbian accounted for 49.3 per cent of worldwide smartphone operating systems (OS) market share in the first quarter of 2009, down from 56.9 per cent share in the first quarter of 2008. RIM’s smartphone OS market share reached 19.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, up from 13.3 per cent share in the first quarter of last year. The iPhone OS accounted for 10.8 per cent of the market, up from 5.3 per cent market share in the first quarter of 2008.

Tom Kang, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, said, “We forecast global Android smartphone shipments to grow an impressive 900 percent annually during 2009. The Android mobile operating system from Google gained early traction in the United States in the second half of 2008 and it is gradually spreading its presence into Europe and Asia during 2009. Android is expanding from a low base and it is consequently outgrowing the iPhone OS from Apple, which we estimate will grow at a relatively lower 79 percent annually in 2009.”

Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “”Android has fast been winning healthy support among operators, vendors and developers. A relatively low-cost licensing model, its semi-open-source structure and Google’s support for cloud services have encouraged companies such as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, T Mobile, Vodafone and others to support the Android operating system. Android is now in a good position to become a top-tier player in smartphones over the next two to three years.”

The studies measure customer satisfaction with traditional wireless handsets and smartphones across several key factors. In order of importance, key factors in examining traditional wireless handsets are operation (30%); physical design (30%); features (20%); and battery function (20%). Among residential smartphone owners, key factors are ease of operation (30%); operating system (22%); features (21%); physical design (18%); and battery function (9%).

Apple ranks highest among smartphone manufacturers with a score of 791 on a 1,000-point scale, performing particularly well in ease of operation, operating system, features and physical design. LG (772) and Samsung (759) follow Apple in the rankings.

Among traditional handsets, LG ranks highest in overall wireless customer satisfaction with a score of 733, performing well across all factors. Sony Ericsson follows with 712.

“As consumers continuously upgrade to mobile phones that allow a full mobile-Web experience, advanced multimedia programs and 3G data downloads, overall handset satisfaction should continue to rise, as these devices tend to make our lives more convenient and prove entertaining,” said Kirk Parsons, senior director of wireless services at J.D. Power and Associates. “It is crucial, however, that manufacturers ensure these features are intuitive and that wireless carriers educate customers to maximize their wireless experience. While manufacturers continue to develop advanced features, they must also continue to provide a high-quality calling experience for their users.”

The study also finds several key wireless handset usage patterns:

• More than 40 percent of smartphone users report entirely replacing landline calling with mobile phone calling, while only 28 percent of traditional handset owners have done the same.
• One-third of traditional mobile phone owners indicate they would like to have some type of GPS software or capability on their next phone.
• Forty-two percent of traditional mobile phones owners received their phone for free after rebates and discounts, compared with just 32 percent in the 2008 Volume 2 study.

“ABI Research estimates that worldwide handset shipments will fall by at least 8% in 2009,” says practice director Kevin Burden, “and we believe that flat growth in 2010 is the best the market will deliver. We will see neither significant growth nor decline in shipments, and that would actually be a good outcome: the beginning of the upswing back to a more stable growth pattern.”

Even if global shipment numbers hold steady at essentially 2009 levels, there will be regional variations. Some regions such as the Middle East and Africa will fare comparatively better, but volumes there are quite low.

The Asia-Pacific region will suffer most in 2009, primarily as a result of its huge volume of shipments – roughly triple the next largest region. And stabilization – if it comes – will arrive there a little later than in North America and Europe, resulting in a 2010 forecast that still shows a minimal decline in shipments, while other regions may enjoy a minimal positive growth.

“There are telltale signs that at least some parts of the handset ecosystem may be starting to steady,” Burden adds. “Many handset vendors are replacing component inventories after reducing them to very low levels in recent months to keep from overextending as the market dropped. This doesn’t necessarily mean the whole market is doing better, but it is good news at least for the component suppliers, some of which were really suffering.”

Mobile coupons are attractive to both consumers and vendors as they can be targeted at specific groups of customers and can be matched against particular interests and purchasing patterns, as opposed to the vanilla approach where “everybody gets every coupon” as in the traditional model.

Mobile Coupons Report author Howard Wilcox explained: “We believe that merchants will see targeted, quick one-to-one marketing campaigns via mobile coupons as a valuable marketing weapon. Considering that mobile coupons offer much better redemption rates and are more cost effective, they represent a win-win approach for innovative retailers.”

Other findings from the Juniper Research report:

• With in excess of 100m mobile phone users globally forecast to use mobile coupons in 2010, Juniper Research sees significant growth across the developed markets of North America, Western Europe, the Far East and China.
• As well as the key drivers, however, there are some significant hurdles, including the lack of suitable point of sale (POS) infrastructure at the supermarket checkout allowing for the quick and easy redemption of coupons, which is critical to the consumer shopping experience.

“Over the course of the past year, we have seen use of mobile Internet evolve from an occasional activity to being a daily part of people’s lives,” observed Mark Donovan, senior vice president, mobile, comScore. “This underscores the growing importance of the mobile medium as consumers become more reliant on their mobile devices to access time-sensitive and utilitarian information.”

“Social networking and blogging have emerged as very popular daily uses of the mobile Web and these activities are growing at a torrid pace,” observed Donovan. “We also note that much of the growth in news and information usage is driven by the increased popularity of downloaded applications, such as those offered for the iPhone, and by text-based searches. While smartphones and high-end feature phones, like the Samsung Instinct and LG Dare comprise the Top 10 devices used for news and information access, 70 percent of those accessing mobile Internet content are using feature phones.”

In January, 22.3 million people accessed news and information via a downloaded application. Maps are the most popular downloaded application with 8.2 million users, while search was the overwhelmingly favored use for SMS-based news and information access, with 14.1 million users. Overall, 32.4 million people used SMS to access news and information in January.

Young males are the most avid users of mobile news and information, with half of 18 to 34-year-old males engaging in the activity. The mobile Internet is also quite popular among females in the 18 to 24-year-old demographic, with 40 percent accessing it at least once in January.