Regional Analysis

In the first quarter of 2008, 114.4 million mobile devices were sold in Asia/Pacific. This represented a 26.6 per cent increase over the first quarter of 2007. India remained a high-growth market, and South Korea became a high growth market as well during the quarter, as consumers upgraded their handsets before the new extended contracts are put in place by operators in the second quarter of 2008. “Growth in Asia/Pacific was driven by a high number of new subscribers, lower-priced phones based on wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) technology, as well as low-cost global system for mobile communications (GSM) phones and ultra-low-cost CDMA devices,” said Anshul Gupta, principal research analyst for mobile terminals at Gartner, based in Mumbai, India.

Sales in the Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa region reached 56.4 million units, which represented a 25.8 per cent increase year-on-year. “Sales in the Baltics remained slow in response to the strong slowdown in new additions that began in 2007 as operators focused more about shifting users to contracts than not acquiring more prepay users,” said Annette Zimmermann, senior research analyst for mobile devices at Gartner, based in Munich, Germany. Several countries experienced good growth in net new additions.

In Japan, sales to end users numbered 13.2 million units in the first quarter of 2008, a decrease of 10.1 per cent year-on-year. “There were no new phone features in the first quarter of 2008 that were strong enough to drive growth, unlike the first quarter of 2007 when having a music player function and an embedded integrated services digital broadcasting – terrestrial (ISDB-T) tuner persuaded users to replace their devices,” said Nahoko Mitsuyama, principal analyst for mobile communications research at Gartner, based in Tokyo.. “The proportion of WCDMA devices sold in Japan decreased from 63.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2007 to less than 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2008. Conversely, the proportion of high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA) devices rose sharply from 1.9 per cent to more than 35 per cent in the same period.”

Sales of mobile handsets in the Latin America region increased by nearly 28.4 per cent compared with the first quarter of 2007, to reach nearly 32.5 million units in the first quarter of 2008. “There was some buildup of inventory in Latin America – specifically in Brazil – as operators prepared for Valentine’s and Mother’s Day promotions,” said Tuong Nguyen, analyst for mobile terminals at Gartner, based in Arlington, Virginia.

In North America, sales to end users totalled 41.9 million units in the first quarter of 2008, a 2.4 per cent increase from the first quarter of 2007. “AT&T and Verizon Wireless had solid quarters, while Sprint Nextel continued to have problems,” said Hughes De La Vergne, principal analyst for mobile terminals research at Gartner, based in Dallas, Texas. “New subscriber levels were low, implying that the weak economy may be having a negative effect on the wireless handset market. Approximately 90 per cent of sales came from the replacement market.”

Sales of mobile phones in Western Europe totalled 35.9 million units in the first quarter of 2008, a decrease of 16.4 per cent from the first quarter of 2007. “Operators in this region have been driving sales of higher-end devices by offering higher subsidies but with longer contract periods, which is having a negative impact on replacement cycles,” Ms Milanesi said. “Sales of high-end devices were also adversely affected by the economic slowdown that many countries are experiencing. Consumers pressured by a higher cost of living continued to replace their phones but chose devices from the mid-tier, which tends to be offered for free and with shorter and less expensive service contracts.”

Ms Milanesi concluded: “We remain confident that 2008 will be a growth year for the mobile phone industry. Sales, driven in particular by emerging markets, will continue to rise in the range of 10-15 per cent. However, the value of the market will be lower than we stated in our forecast update published in December 2007. This is because the current economic slowdown and higher fuel costs will force consumers to defer phone purchases in mature markets, while higher food prices will lead to longer replacement cycles in emerging ones.”