The global mobile handset market went into a tailspin in October and November, which will result in a nearly 5% YoY decline in unit shipments in Q4. While 2009 is likely to see more stormy economic weather, there are a few rays of sunshine. 

“The number of WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile handsets sold (currently 39% of the total) is expected to exceed 50% in 2009,” says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Much of the brunt of the economic downturn will be experienced in the 2G categories. WCDMA handset shipments are projected to grow from 258 million in 2008 to 725 million in 2009. By 2013, more than 67% of all handsets shipped will be 3G/3G+ capable.” 

“Another robust segment is smartphones,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “Smartphones captured 14% of the 2008 market and are expected to grow throughout the challenging period of 2009 and comprise 31% of the market by 2013.” Smartphones are among the most coveted pieces of prosumer electronics. 

Cellular modems will also be a high growth sector in 2009, driven largely by USB modems which will account for 80% of the shipment volume. Market volume is expected to increase by more than 55% in the coming year as Asian vendors push forward with low-priced modems. 

Operators continue to be creative with broadband plans to entice new users, offering options such as a free month with a modem purchase, as well as daily and weekend plans and per MB fees. “For as long as operators aggressively price and promote mobile broadband plans, cellular modems will continue to be a hot category with considerable potential in SOHO and SMB segments,” concludes Burden.